Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 at Target Field on September 12, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided by a dominant third inning and held together by Minnesota's pitching staff. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with a near-even 51 percent home win probability, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Twins built and protected a lead that Cleveland never managed to fully overcome.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the third against Cleveland starter Franco Aleman, when Minnesota strung together three of the game's five most consequential plays in rapid succession. Royce Lewis delivered a run-scoring single that shifted win probability by 8.0 percent, Victor Caratini reached on a hit by pitch worth 9.0 percent, and Emmanuel Rodriguez capped the frame with a home run that added another 11.2 percent to Minnesota's chances. Rodriguez finished as the game's top offensive performer at plus-16.2 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24. Cleveland answered with a two-run fifth inning off Connor Prielipp, with Steven Kwan's single generating 9.3 percent in win probability and Austin Hedges' double adding 8.7 percent — Hedges finishing the night at plus-13.2 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 — but the Guardians could not manufacture enough to close the gap entirely.

Minnesota's pitching corps proved to be the decisive factor in preserving the narrow one-run margin. Joey Cantillo led all pitchers with plus-18.9 percent WPA, followed by A.J. Minter at plus-15.2 percent and Jeff Hoffman at plus-10.8 percent. The three combined to neutralize Cleveland's offense over the game's final innings, and the model leans toward crediting that collective bullpen performance as the structural reason Minnesota's late-game win probability held firm rather than deteriorating as the Guardians made their fifth-inning push.