Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles dominated the Cleveland Guardians 9-5 on September 9, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, turning what opened as a near coin-flip contest into a rout. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 52 percent home win probability and closed it at 100 percent, a trajectory almost entirely shaped by a historic third inning that produced eight Baltimore runs and effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the third against Foster Griffin, who could not escape the frame. Dylan Beavers delivered the most impactful blow of the night, a double that shifted Baltimore's win probability by plus-14.9 percent, and Pete Alonso followed with a single worth plus-12.4 percent. A hit by pitch to Christian Encarnacion-Strand added another plus-7.8 percent, and Jeremiah Jackson extended the damage with a single at plus-7.4 percent. Cleveland attempted a mild response in the top of the sixth, when Patrick Bailey doubled off Shane Baz for a plus-6.4 percent swing, but the three-run frame only trimmed Baltimore's margin without threatening the outcome.

On the individual leaderboard, Beavers finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-16.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Alonso posted plus-12.2 percent and the highest RE24 among position players at plus-1.5. Travis Bazzana led Cleveland's contributors at plus-8.9 percent WPA despite the loss. On the pitching side, Rico Garcia paced Baltimore's staff with a plus-9.0 percent WPA, supported by Josh Walker at plus-5.8 percent. Cleveland's errors, two on the night compared to Baltimore's one, further complicated the Guardians' path in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately found no uncertainty in by the final out.