Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the Chicago Cubs 4-3 in ten innings on September 8, 2026, at American Family Field, completing a dramatic comeback that began with the game nearly out of reach. The DiamondIQ model had Milwaukee favored at 60 percent before first pitch, but the probability swung violently in the ninth and tenth innings before settling at 100 percent in Milwaukee's favor by the final out. Both teams had traded single runs in the opening frame, and the game remained a 1-1 deadlock through eight innings before an eventful final two frames decided everything.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the ninth, when Carson Kelly's double off Trevor Megill shifted win probability by plus 23.6 percent toward Chicago, and a Michael Conforto walk moments later added another 15.3 percent, pushing the Cubs into a position of genuine late-game control. Chicago ultimately scratched across two runs to take a 3-1 lead. That advantage evaporated immediately in the bottom half when Jackson Chourio crushed a home run off Jacob Webb, a swing that single-handedly produced the largest win-probability movement of the game at plus 49.8 percent, erasing the deficit and sending the contest to extra innings. In the tenth, Sal Frelick delivered the winning single off Caleb Thielbar for a plus 20.5 percent swing, with Luis Lara's preceding single contributing another 15.4 percent to set the table.

Chourio finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, accumulating plus 53.9 percent WPA and plus 2.8 RE24 on the night. Brice Turang added plus 31.9 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24 as a key contributor to the Brewers' rally, while Kelly's plus 23.6 percent WPA led all Cubs batters despite the loss. On the mound, Jacob Misiorowski paced Milwaukee's pitchers at plus 25.7 percent WPA, with Aaron Civale and David Peterson also posting positive contributions. The DiamondIQ model leans toward outcomes shaped by late-inning leverage, and this game illustrated precisely why single swings in high-leverage moments can redefine an entire contest.