Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros held off a late Philadelphia rally to take this September 8 contest at Citizens Bank Park, 6-5, completing a road win that the DiamondIQ model had given just a 41 percent chance before first pitch. Houston did most of its damage early, erupting for four runs in the second inning and adding one more in the fourth to build a commanding cushion. Philadelphia chipped away with three runs in the sixth and one in the seventh, before Josh Hader navigated a treacherous ninth to preserve the result, finishing off what had been a genuinely tight finish.
The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the ninth, when Edmundo Sosa's double off Hader shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 28.3 percent in Philadelphia's favor, suddenly making a comeback feel real. But Hader recovered, inducing a Kyle Schwarber pop out that swung win probability back 21.4 percent toward Houston, and a J.T. Realmuto flyout that cost Philadelphia another 16.6 percent. Realmuto had also been central to an earlier missed opportunity, hitting into a double play in the seventh off AJ Blubaugh that negated 16.3 percent of Philadelphia's win probability. Trea Turner's sixth-inning home run off Hayden Wesneski had been the most important individual offensive blow for the Phillies, adding 15.1 percent to their win probability at the time.
Among the standout performers by the model's accounting, Sosa led all batters with a 28.3 percent WPA contribution despite the outcome, while Turner finished at plus-22.7 percent WPA with a strong plus-1.9 RE24 showing. Schwarber posted a plus-18.3 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.2, reflecting the situational nature of his contributions. On the pitching side, Bryan Abreu was Houston's most valuable reliever at plus-13.3 percent WPA, with Wesneski adding plus-10.4 percent before surrendering Turner's home run. The model leans on Houston's bullpen execution as the primary reason a 59 percent pregame Phillies advantage ended at zero.