Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Petco Park on September 7, 2026, with San Diego building its lead early and holding on through a tense ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring the Padres at 61% and finished at 100% as Mason Miller closed the door in the final frame.

San Diego struck first in the bottom of the first and then extended its advantage with a two-run third inning, the biggest swing of which came on a Jackson Merrill single off Jake Irvin that added 6.8 percentage points to the Padres' win probability. Washington answered in the top of the sixth when Dylan Crews launched a home run off Kyle Hart, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-18.5 points, cutting the deficit to one and making it a genuine contest heading into the final innings. Crews' blast was the defining moment of the Nationals' night, accounting for the bulk of his game-high plus-25.3% WPA. The Padres managed no further scoring after the third, but their three-run cushion proved sufficient.

The ninth inning saw Washington mount one final threat against Mason Miller, who contributed plus-15.2% WPA in closing duties. Crews reached on a single worth plus-7.6 points of win probability, but CJ Abrams struck out for a swing of minus-8.9 points and Abimelec Ortiz followed with another strikeout at minus-7.1, ending the rally. Nick Pivetta paced the San Diego pitching staff by WPA at plus-16.8%, while Adrian Morejon added plus-10.8%. For Washington, Crews and Merrill each posted an identical plus-1.8 RE24, though the Nationals could not convert their late opportunities into enough runs to overcome a Padres team that the DiamondIQ model had favored from the opening pitch.