Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-4 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent certainty in Baltimore's favor. The Orioles built their advantage early and methodically, scoring in the second and third innings to establish control before Cleveland mounted a late push that fell short.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third inning, where Coby Mayo's home run off Joey Cantillo carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 9.4 percent, followed by a Blaze Alexander walk off Franco Aleman that added another 7.3 percent. Mayo had already benefited from a Dylan Beavers double in the second inning, the game's second-largest swing at plus 7.8 percent, also off Cantillo. Mayo struck again in the bottom of the sixth with another home run, this one off Slade Cecconi, adding 7.6 percent to Baltimore's win probability. Cleveland's best moment came in the top of the sixth, when a Jo Adell double off Trevor Rogers generated a 6.4 percent swing, part of a three-run Guardians rally in the ninth that proved too late to matter.
Mayo finished as the game's top offensive performer by a significant margin, accumulating plus 15.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9 across his two-home-run effort. Rece Hinds contributed plus 8.4 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, while Pete Alonso added plus 6.7 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 for Baltimore. On the mound, Trevor Rogers led all pitchers with plus 16.0 percent WPA, anchoring a Baltimore staff that largely kept Cleveland's lineup at bay until the game was effectively decided.