New York Yankees at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the San Diego Padres 5-1 at Petco Park on September 5, 2026, effectively ending any suspense early as a four-run second inning built a lead the Padres never threatened seriously. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving each side nearly equal footing at 49% for San Diego, but by the time the second inning concluded, that probability had swung decisively toward New York and never recovered, finishing at 0% for the home side.

The second inning was the game's defining sequence. Amed Rosario's forceout moved the Yankees forward with a +7.4% win-probability swing, and Cody Bellinger's single added another +5.8%, compounding damage off Robbie Ray as New York pushed four runs across. On the other side of that frame, Jake Cronenworth's strikeout against Carlos Rodón registered as the single largest probability shift of the game at -9.2%, wiping out what had been San Diego's last real window to answer. Manny Machado's solo home run in the fourth against Rodón produced a +5.8% swing for the Padres, but by then the deficit was too steep, and Luis Campusano's flyout in the sixth against Michael Fulmer, a -4.7% swing, closed the door on San Diego's most viable late threat.

Individually, Machado led all position players by WPA at +10.8% despite being on the losing side, paired with a +1.8 RE24, reflecting his home run as a genuinely significant moment within the game's context. Spencer Jones contributed +4.8% WPA and +1.1 RE24 for New York, while Rosario added +5.6% WPA on the offensive side for the Yankees. On the mound, Carlos Rodón was the game's most dominant force, generating +18.0% WPA for New York, with Brent Headrick adding +7.7% and Griffin Canning contributing +5.2% as the bullpen held the Padres to a single run on three hits across nine innings.