Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | 6 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers held off the Washington Nationals 6-5 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on September 5, 2026, finishing a game the DiamondIQ model had favored from the start, with the pre-game home win probability set at 67 percent and the final figure reaching 100 percent. The Nationals carried a brief edge into the middle innings, using a Dylan Crews double off Tyler Glasnow in the fourth to help push Washington ahead, a swing that added 11.8 percent win probability. But Los Angeles erased whatever momentum the visitors had built with a decisive seventh inning.
The pivotal moment of the night came in the bottom of the seventh when Tommy Edman connected on a home run off Clayton Beeter, a blast that swung win probability by 48.1 percent in the Dodgers' favor and effectively restructured the game. Edman finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 43.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.3, making him the clearest difference-maker on either side. The Dodgers added an insurance run in the eighth after Alex Call was hit by a pitch off Jack Sinclair, a sequence worth plus 10.6 percent win probability. Washington mounted a mild threat in the ninth with an Andrés Chaparro double off Tanner Scott that added 9.8 percent win probability to the Nationals' ledger, but a CJ Abrams strikeout to end the inning cost Washington 16.6 percent win probability and closed the door.
On the pitching side, Cade Cavalli led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 25.9 percent, while Evan Phillips contributed plus 10.8 percent and Scott closed at plus 6.3 percent despite the late Nationals push. Dylan Crews and Keibert Ruiz were the only other Nationals to register meaningful WPA contributions, at plus 14.9 percent and plus 9.3 percent respectively, but the lineup could not sustain enough pressure against a Dodgers bullpen that ultimately secured the one-run victory. The model leans toward this result as consistent with the pre-game probability structure, with Edman's seventh-inning home run serving as the singular inflection point of the contest.