Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 5 | 12 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 5, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 40% before first pitch all the way to 100% by game's end. Cincinnati built its margin incrementally, scoring in five of nine innings and finishing with 12 hits against a Milwaukee staff that surrendered runs in clusters it could not recover from.
The decisive stretch came in the middle innings, where Cincinnati's offense delivered its most damaging blows. Jose Trevino's fourth-inning single off DL Hall was the single highest-impact plate appearance of the night by cumulative WPA, with Trevino finishing at plus-17.9 percent and plus-1.1 RE24, making him the game's most valuable offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Tyler Stephenson followed with a sixth-inning home run off JoJo Romero worth plus-13.8 percent win probability, and Matt McLain added a seventh-inning home run off Aaron Ashby that swung the needle another plus-15.8 percent. David Hamilton's seventh-inning single off Tony Santillan chipped in plus-11.0 percent, finishing the frame as a particularly damaging sequence for Milwaukee. The Brewers' best chance to respond came in the top of the ninth, but Luis Lara's pop out against Emilio Pagán extinguished the threat and carried a minus-12.1 percent swing, effectively closing the door on any comeback.
On the pitching side, Brock Burke led all Cincinnati arms with plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Tejay Antone at plus-7.1 percent and Andrew Abbott at plus-6.8 percent, a collective effort that kept Milwaukee's eight hits from translating into enough offense. The Brewers committed no errors but managed only three runs, unable to match Cincinnati's efficiency with runners on base.