Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Detroit Tigers 4-3 in ten innings on September 4, 2026, at Progressive Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 59 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent at the final out. Detroit struck first in the third inning when Kevin McGonigle delivered a double off Foster Griffin that shifted win probability 11.3 points in the Tigers' favor, and Detroit extended its advantage to 3-0 with a run in the fifth. Cleveland began its climb back in the sixth when Nathaniel Lowe doubled off Andrew Sears for an 11.7-point swing, then Travis Bazzana brought the Guardians within one with a home run off Jacob Waguespack in the eighth that moved win probability 31.9 points toward Cleveland. Detroit turned to Kenley Jansen to protect the lead, but Jansen navigated a tense ninth after Patrick Bailey's strikeout registered as a 14.0-point positive swing for the Guardians' side.

Jansen could not close it out in the tenth, as Bazzana ended the game with a walk-off single that produced the largest single-play swing of the night at plus 37.9 win-probability points. Bazzana finished as the game's dominant figure with a combined WPA of plus 66.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.3, accounting for both the tying blow and the decisive hit. On the pitching side, Andrew Sears led Cleveland's staff with plus 17.8 percent WPA, followed by Beau Brieske at plus 13.5 percent and Hunter Gaddis at plus 9.5 percent. Detroit's nine hits went for nothing in the end, as the Guardians converted fewer base runners into the four runs that mattered.