MLB Recap · September 3, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

STL2
Final
LAD3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL1010000002120
LAD000010002360

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 on September 3, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, rallying for two runs in the bottom of the ninth to erase a deficit and secure the victory. The Cardinals had carried a 2-1 lead into the final inning, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers win, which opened the game at 63 percent, had been pushed significantly in St. Louis's favor before the ninth-inning collapse unraveled it entirely, swinging to 100 percent by game's end.

The decisive moment came on a Teoscar Hernández double off Riley O'Brien that added 67.2 percent to the Dodgers' win probability, the single largest swing of the game and the blow that effectively ended it. Before Hernández came to the plate, Mookie Betts had drawn a walk off O'Brien to add 12.3 percent, and Tommy Edman followed the Hernández double with a run-scoring single that contributed another 9.0 percent, completing the comeback. The Cardinals had their own pivotal negative swing in the eighth, when Dalton Rushing struck out against George Soriano, a moment that cost Los Angeles 29.8 percent in win probability and kept the Cardinals' lead intact heading into the ninth. Ramón Urías's single off Tarik Skubal in the third inning had been the Cardinals' most impactful offensive play, adding 10.1 percent at the time.

Hernández finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, totaling plus-73.6 percent in WPA and plus-1.8 in RE24 to go with his walk-off double. Tommy Edman contributed plus-19.0 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Mookie Betts added plus-10.5 percent WPA. On the pitching side, George Soriano led all pitchers with plus-23.3 percent WPA, with Quinn Mathews close behind at plus-22.6 percent and Ryne Stanek contributing plus-9.7 percent. The Cardinals outhit the Dodgers 12 to 6 but were unable to convert that advantage into runs when it mattered most.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalLAD win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 9th · off Riley O'Brien
+67.2%
Dalton Rushing — Strikeout
Bot 8th · off George Soriano
-29.8%
Mookie Betts — Walk
Bot 9th · off Riley O'Brien
+12.3%
Ramón Urías — Single
Top 3rd · off Tarik Skubal
+10.1%
Tommy Edman — Single
Bot 9th · off Riley O'Brien
+9.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Teoscar Hernández+73.6%+1.8 RE24
Tommy Edman+19.0%+1.5 RE24
Mookie Betts+10.5%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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