Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 at Wrigley Field on September 3, 2026, in a low-scoring affair that was largely decided in the third inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Chicago holding a 48% win probability, but that figure climbed sharply after Pete Crow-Armstrong deposited a home run off Logan Henderson in the bottom of the third, a swing that added 18.1 percentage points to Chicago's win probability and stood as the most consequential play of the night. Milwaukee answered in the top of the fourth when Andrew Vaughn took Kevin Gausman deep for a solo shot, a blow worth plus 10.1 percentage points for the Brewers, briefly keeping the game within reach. Those two home runs accounted for all three runs on the night, and neither team could manufacture anything further across eight innings of otherwise quiet baseball.

Gausman was dominant in his effort, finishing as the top pitching performer by WPA at plus 28.8 percentage points, repeatedly suppressing Milwaukee's most dangerous opportunities. Christian Yelich grounded out in the sixth at minus 5.4 percentage points and Jackson Chourio flied out in the eighth at minus 5.2 percentage points, two of the sharper probability swings against the Brewers that underscored how thoroughly Gausman neutralized their lineup. Relievers Ryan Rolison and Ryan Zeferjahn combined for another plus 26.0 percentage points of win probability added, with Jake Bauers grounding out in the ninth against Rolison at minus 7.1 percentage points to close the door. Crow-Armstrong led all position players at plus 20.2 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100% by game's end, reflecting how little danger Chicago faced once the third inning concluded.