New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Tampa Bay Rays a 10-4 defeat at Tropicana Field on September 2, 2026, a result that swung dramatically against the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 68 percent home win probability for Tampa Bay. The Mets wasted little time establishing control, scoring three runs in the first inning and adding three more in the third, with Brett Baty's double off Griffin Jax in that frame carrying a win-probability swing of plus-14.9 percent and standing as one of the game's early turning points. The Rays briefly clawed back in the fourth inning, when Richie Palacios launched a home run off Chris Devenski that added 16.6 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability and briefly tightened the contest, but the Mets answered with a decisive three-run seventh inning punctuated by Nick Morabito's double off Manuel Rodríguez, the single most consequential swing of the game at plus-18.0 percent win probability in New York's favor.

From the mound, Justin Hagenman was the quiet engine of the Mets' victory, posting a plus-26.3 percent WPA — the highest of any pitcher on either side. He benefited from two of Tampa Bay's most damaging negative plays: Junior Caminero's strikeout in the first inning cost the Rays 11.5 percent in win probability, and Victor Mesa Jr.'s flyout in the second subtracted another 12.3 percent, each coming off Hagenman's hand and effectively extinguishing early opportunities for the home club. Dedniel Núñez and Nate Lavender added further stability out of the bullpen with WPA figures of plus-10.4 and plus-8.5, respectively. Among position players, Morabito led all batters with a plus-18.0 WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, followed by Baty at plus-14.2 WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, as the Mets rolled to a final line of 14 hits and 10 runs against a Tampa Bay defense that committed two errors.