New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays handled the New York Mets 6-2 on September 1, 2026, at Tropicana Field, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 69 percent home win probability. Tampa Bay built its lead methodically, scoring in the first and third innings before delivering a decisive three-run sixth that effectively ended the contest. The Rays collected 14 hits against a Mets pitching staff that struggled to contain them, while New York managed just three hits and committed an error in a largely ineffective offensive effort.
The pivotal sequence of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, where Nick Fortes delivered a double off Sean Manaea that carried a win-probability swing of plus 12.3 percent, the single most impactful play of the night per DiamondIQ's model. Fortes was the game's top offensive contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus 9.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.2. Ryan Vilade had earlier set the tone with a third-inning single off Manaea worth plus 8.2 percent in win probability, finishing with a WPA of plus 8.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.3. The Mets mounted a brief threat in the top of the seventh when Francisco Lindor drew a walk off Tyler Wells, a moment worth plus 7.2 percent in win probability and good for a game-high RE24 of plus 1.7, but Juan Soto followed with a pop out that swung the model minus 9.2 percent, and Mark Vientos then popped out as well, costing another 6.8 percent and extinguishing the rally entirely.
On the mound, Freddy Peralta was the dominant force, posting a WPA of plus 17.9 percent to lead all pitchers. Tyler Wells reinforced the effort in relief with a plus 13.4 percent WPA, navigating the seventh-inning threat with two critical outs. Austin Warren contributed a plus 0.8 percent WPA in a clean late appearance. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved to 100 percent certainty by game's end, reflecting a Rays performance that was thorough and largely free of the defensive miscues that plagued their opponents.