Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | 6 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-1 on September 1, 2026, at Progressive Field, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a modest 56 percent home win probability into a decisive outcome that finished at 100 percent. Cleveland's offense remained quiet through four innings before breaking the game open in the fifth, and the Guardians never looked back, adding two runs in both the seventh and eighth to pull away for a comfortable victory. Toronto managed just three hits on the night and never mounted a sustained threat against Cleveland's pitching staff.
The pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Patrick Bailey launched a home run off Spencer Arrighetti that shifted win probability by plus 22.8 percent in Cleveland's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Toronto had actually generated some life in the top half of that inning, as Ernie Clement drew a walk off Gavin Williams to produce a plus 7.5 percent swing, and Brett Bateman followed with a groundout that moved the needle another plus 6.8 percent. But Myles Straw's strikeout to end the inning cost the Blue Jays 7.9 percent in win probability, and Bailey's blast immediately swung momentum decisively toward Cleveland. Angel Genao extended the lead with a home run off Joe Mantiply in the seventh, a plus 16.1 percent swing that effectively closed the door on any Toronto comeback.
Individually, Bailey finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 19.4 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Genao posted the highest RE24 among Cleveland hitters at plus 1.5 alongside his plus 16.1 percent WPA figure. Angel Martinez also contributed positively at plus 4.5 percent WPA and a team-best plus 1.9 RE24. On the mound, Gavin Williams was the standout performer, generating plus 22.0 percent WPA by navigating the Blue Jays' fifth-inning threat and keeping Toronto in check, with Hunter Gaddis and Ricky Tiedemann each adding positive contributions in relief to close out the win.