Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 at Nationals Park on August 31, 2026, in a game that was tied through three innings before Washington took control with a decisive seventh inning that put the outcome beyond reach. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Washington holding a narrow 51 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out.

The Marlins struck first and hardest in the top of the fourth, where Kyle Stowers delivered a single off Luis Perales that swung win probability 21.2 percent in Miami's favor, part of a three-run frame that gave the visitors an early lead. Washington answered in the fifth when Daylen Lile drove a home run off Jack Ralston, a swing worth 19.3 percent in win probability, pulling the Nationals back into contention. Lile then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the seventh, connecting for another home run, this time off Josh Ekness, for a 22.6 percent win-probability swing that capped a four-run inning and effectively sealed the game. Miami's best chance to respond came in the top of the eighth, when Javier Sanoja singled off Matt Waldron to generate a 13.1 percent swing, but Leo Jimenez immediately grounded into a double play off Erik Tolman, erasing the threat with a 15.4 percent probability shift back toward Washington.

Lile was the clear catalyst for Washington, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-44.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.5 on the strength of his two home runs. Sanoja added plus-17.5 percent WPA despite the rally being cut short, while Stowers contributed plus-13.0 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 for Miami's offensive efforts. On the mound, Erik Tolman led Washington's relief corps with plus-26.7 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Gusto at plus-15.3 percent and Will Dion at plus-9.6 percent, a collective bullpen performance that preserved the Nationals' advantage through the final innings.