Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 6-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on August 29, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 55 percent chance of winning. Pittsburgh scored in five of nine innings, collecting 11 hits against a Cardinals staff that could not contain a Pirates lineup that punished mistakes. St. Louis managed just three hits and committed an error that further complicated their evening.
The decisive moment came in the top of the fifth inning when Rafael Flores Jr. connected on a home run off Brycen Mautz, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-26.0 percent and effectively broke the game open. That blow was the single largest win-probability play of the night, and Flores Jr. finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-19.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6. Before that, Jake Mangum had already applied pressure with a single off Mautz in the fourth that added plus-9.8 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability, and the Pirates had drawn first blood with a run in the opening frame. On the St. Louis side, Joshua Báez provided a brief spark with a third-inning home run off Lake Bachar worth plus-11.2 percent, and Jimmy Crooks added a seventh-inning double off Gregory Soto that gained plus-8.1 percent, though both came with the Cardinals already chasing the game.
Pittsburgh's pitching staff was equally decisive. Carmen Mlodzinski led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.1 percent, limiting the Cardinals' threat and absorbing a José Fermín fielding error in the sixth that temporarily boosted St. Louis by plus-8.0 percent without allowing it to snowball. Gregory Soto added plus-6.3 percent and Luke Weaver contributed plus-5.2 percent on the mound. Nathan Church rounded out the offensive contributors at plus-5.9 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for the Cardinals, a clean reflection of how thoroughly Pittsburgh controlled the final innings.