Houston Astros at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Houston Astros 6-2 on August 29, 2026 at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win opening at 49% before finishing at 100%. The game was largely decided in the bottom of the fifth inning, when the Mets strung together three consecutive damaging plays against Cristian Javier. Francisco Lindor doubled to get things started, adding 5.2 percentage points to New York's win probability, before Jared Young followed with a triple that swung the model by 19.9 points — the single most impactful play of the game. Juan Soto then drove in another run with a single worth an additional 10.3 points, capping a three-run fifth that effectively buried Houston.

The Mets' pitching staff was the other pillar of the victory. Nolan McLean led all players regardless of side with a staggering plus-30.4% WPA, making him the most consequential performer on the night. Enyel De Los Santos and Kodai Senga contributed modest but positive contributions of 2.5% and 0.7% respectively, keeping the Astros in check through most of the contest. Houston managed only four hits and did not commit an error, but their offense had little answer for New York's arms until the eighth inning, when Yordan Alvarez launched a home run off Daniel Duarte that added 6.4 points to Houston's win probability — the lone bright spot of the evening for the Astros.

Jared Young finished as the top position player by WPA at plus-19.8% to go with a RE24 of plus-3.1, reflecting how directly his fifth-inning triple changed the game's trajectory. Yordan Alvarez posted plus-7.8% WPA despite Houston's loss, driven entirely by his solo shot. Francisco Alvarez added an eighth-inning double worth 8.4 points that helped the Mets extend their lead to four, closing out what was a thoroughly dominant home performance. The Mets collected 11 hits on the night to Houston's four, and despite committing one error, New York controlled the game from the fifth inning onward.