Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 2 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds erased a two-run deficit and outlasted the Chicago Cubs 10-8 at Wrigley Field on August 28, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win begin at 63 percent and fall to zero. Cincinnati scored in just five of nine innings but did its damage in concentrated bursts, most decisively in the sixth and seventh, when the Reds plated seven combined runs to seize control after Chicago had built its early advantage.
The single most consequential play of the afternoon came in the top of the sixth, when Tyler Stephenson drove a home run off Trent Thornton that swung win probability 32.0 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. Stephenson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-26.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4, and Sal Stewart was nearly as impactful at plus-25.7 percent and plus-1.5 RE24. Chicago briefly threatened to make it a contest in the bottom of the eighth, when Pedro Ramirez hit a home run off Tejay Antone and Seiya Suzuki followed with a double off Sam Moll, each swing adding 17.9 percentage points of win probability for the Cubs. Michael Busch had earlier contributed a home run off Rhett Lowder in the third worth plus-15.9 percent, though his groundout to end a key sequence in the eighth carried a negative swing of 18.7 percent. Nico Hoerner rounded out the Cubs' most impactful offensive contributors at plus-18.5 percent WPA.
On the pitching side, Sam Moll led Cincinnati's relievers at plus-4.5 percent WPA despite surrendering the Suzuki double, with Luis Mey adding plus-3.3 percent and Brock Burke contributing plus-0.8 percent as the Reds' bullpen held enough of the lead to secure the road win. Chicago's two errors factored into a game in which both teams collected 13 hits, but Cincinnati's cleaner execution in the field and its decisive sixth-inning surge proved to be the difference.