MLB Recap · August 28, 2026

Baltimore Orioles at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

BAL4
Final
ATH3

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
BAL0200000002460
ATH0000001101391

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Oakland Athletics 4-3 in ten innings on August 28, 2026, at Sutter Health Park, erasing a deficit that persisted through nine frames to take the series victory. The Athletics entered the game with a 44 percent DiamondIQ model pre-game win probability, but that figure reached zero by the final out. Baltimore scored twice in the second inning and then went quiet until the extras, while Oakland chipped away with a Jonah Heim home run off Brandon Young in the seventh and a solo run in the eighth to tie the game heading into the ninth.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the tenth, where the Orioles authored the two most impactful offensive plays of the game. Christian Encarnacion-Strand singled off Brady Basso for a swing of plus 25.9 percent in win probability, and Coby Mayo followed with another single against Basso that registered the game's single largest batting play at plus 32.1 percent, pushing Baltimore ahead by two. Those two hits off Basso effectively decided the contest. In the bottom of the tenth, Lawrence Butler grounded out with runners on base, a moment that added 27.0 percent win probability to the Athletics' ledger but came with the Orioles already holding the lead, as Alex Hoppe ultimately held Oakland to one run in the inning.

By the DiamondIQ model's individual accounting, Coby Mayo finished as the game's top offensive contributor at plus 30.8 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, with Encarnacion-Strand close behind at plus 21.6 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Brandon Young led Baltimore's staff at plus 26.3 percent WPA despite surrendering the Heim home run, and Hogan Harris added plus 13.5 percent WPA after stranding a threat in the ninth, where Dylan Beavers grounded out in a minus 18.2 percent swing that kept the game tied rather than giving Oakland the lead.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BAL bats firstFinalATH win %BAL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 44.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Coby Mayo — Single
Top 10th · off Brady Basso
+32.1%
Lawrence Butler — Groundout
Bot 10th · off Alex Hoppe
+27.0%
Top 10th · off Brady Basso
+25.9%
Dylan Beavers — Groundout
Top 9th · off Hogan Harris
-18.2%
Jonah Heim — Home Run
Bot 7th · off Brandon Young
+15.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Coby Mayo+30.8%+1.1 RE24
Lawrence Butler+22.5%-0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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