Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-5 on August 27, 2026, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent in favor of St. Louis. The Cardinals built their advantage early and never fully relinquished it, scoring three runs in the second inning and two more in the fourth before Baltimore mounted a significant but ultimately insufficient response in the seventh.

The game's decisive sequence centered on a pair of power swings. Blaze Jordan's home run off Trevor Rogers in the bottom of the second shifted win probability by plus 9.9 percent, and Ramón Urías followed with his own homer off Rogers in the fourth for a plus 10.5 percent swing, giving St. Louis a cushion that proved critical. Baltimore's most dangerous moment came in the top of the seventh, when Coby Mayo connected on a three-run home run off Caleb Ferguson, a plus 12.8 percent swing that pulled the Orioles within striking distance at 5-4. Gunnar Henderson's double off George Soriano in the eighth added another plus 8.7 percent swing and trimmed the deficit to one, but Nathan Church's single off Anthony Nunez in the bottom half of that inning, the game's largest single play at plus 13.9 percent, restored the Cardinals' two-run lead and effectively closed the door.

Urías and Church led St. Louis offensively by WPA, with Church posting plus 13.0 percent and plus 0.9 RE24 and Urías contributing plus 10.5 percent and plus 1.6 RE24. Jackson Holliday added plus 11.8 percent WPA and plus 0.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Gordon Graceffo led Cardinals arms with plus 6.7 percent WPA, followed by Riley O'Brien at plus 6.3 percent and Luis Gastelum at plus 3.5 percent. Baltimore's 5-for-7 run total without an error underscored how the game turned not on mistakes but on the Cardinals' ability to answer each Oriole threat with timely production of their own.