Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles escaped Busch Stadium with an 8-7 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on August 26, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically before the Orioles held on in the ninth. St. Louis grabbed an early foothold with a scoreless first inning from Baltimore's perspective, then the Orioles erupted for five runs in the first and two more in the second to build a 7-1 lead through two frames. The Cardinals answered with a six-run fifth inning off Kyle Bradish, highlighted by Nathan Church's double that added 15.2% to St. Louis's win probability, erasing the deficit and briefly shifting the DiamondIQ model's estimate sharply toward the home side before Baltimore steadied itself through the middle innings.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth, when Christian Encarnacion-Strand delivered a double off Riley O'Brien that swung win probability 26.2% in Baltimore's favor, proving to be the single most impactful play of the game. That hit gave the Orioles the insurance run they needed, and closer Andrew Kittredge navigated a tense bottom half, surviving Iván Herrera's single that added 12.3% to St. Louis's chances before José Fermín's pop out sealed the game and swung win probability 15.5% back toward Baltimore. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54% pre-game home win probability for St. Louis, but that figure closed at 0%.

Encarnacion-Strand finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-23.2% with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Samuel Basallo contributed plus-19.0% WPA and plus-0.5 RE24 in support. On the pitching side, Rico Garcia led Baltimore's relief corps with plus-13.9% WPA, followed by Grant Wolfram at plus-10.9% and George Soriano at plus-10.6%, as the trio collectively preserved the one-run lead through the Cardinals' late push.