Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 on August 23, 2026, at Chase Field, turning what briefly looked like a Cincinnati advantage into a decisive home victory. The Reds drew first blood in the top of the third inning, stringing together a three-run frame against Mitch Bratt highlighted by Eugenio Suárez's single, which added 10.5% to Cincinnati's win probability, and a Dane Myers double worth another 9.2%. That three-run burst gave the Reds a lead they would carry into the later innings, but the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate had already installed Arizona as a 59% favorite, and the Diamondbacks eventually made good on that projection in emphatic fashion.

Arizona's comeback was concentrated almost entirely in the bottom of the seventh inning, when the Diamondbacks scored four runs and effectively ended the game as a contest. The sequence began with a James McCann walk off Andrew Abbott that swung win probability 17.8% toward Arizona, the single largest play of the night. Ildemaro Vargas followed with a triple off reliever Luis Mey that added another 16.2%, and Corbin Carroll capped the rally with a sacrifice fly that contributed 12.3% more. In the span of a few batters, Arizona had erased the Cincinnati lead and vaulted to a lead of their own, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate reaching 100% by game's end.

Corbin Carroll finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-17.9% with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Vargas contributed plus-14.7% WPA and Suárez led Cincinnati's effort at plus-13.5% despite ending up on the losing side. On the mound, the Arizona bullpen closed it out efficiently, with Juan Morillo leading the pitching staff at plus-8.1% WPA, followed by Gerardo Carrillo at plus-4.6% and Jonathan Loáisiga at plus-4.2%. Cincinnati finished with eight hits and no errors, but the concentration of Arizona's damage in a single seventh-inning burst proved more than enough to decide the outcome.