Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres overcame an early deficit to defeat the Minnesota Twins 7-5 at Petco Park on August 22, 2026, in a game that turned decisively in the bottom of the seventh inning. Minnesota had built leads through the first four frames, scoring in the first, second, third, and fourth innings to keep San Diego at bay, but the Padres erased any doubt with a four-run seventh that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win estimate from a contested game to a near-certain San Diego outcome, ultimately reaching 100% by the final out.

The seventh inning against Andrew Morris was where the game was won. Manny Machado's fielders choice was the single most impactful play of the night, adding 24.8% in win probability, followed immediately by Jake Cronenworth's double at plus 21.1% and Ty France's run-scoring single at plus 12.9%. Those three plays alone accounted for nearly 59% in combined win-probability swing, effectively burying Minnesota's chances. Fernando Tatis Jr. added an RBI single off Tommy Nance in the eighth for an additional 10.8% swing, extending the margin to its final two-run cushion. The Twins' best opportunity that failed to materialize came in the second inning, when Gavin Sheets struck out against Dean Kremer in a spot that cost Minnesota 8.1% in win probability.

Among the individual standouts, Machado finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a plus 28.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Cronenworth was nearly as impactful at plus 23.5% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Luke Keaschall led all players in run-expectancy impact with a RE24 of plus 2.0 to go alongside his plus 12.7% WPA. On the pitching side, Dean Kremer led San Diego's staff with plus 17.9% WPA, supported by Adrian Morejon at plus 10.8% and closer Mason Miller at plus 6.3%, as the trio combined to hold Minnesota scoreless over the game's final innings and secure the win.