Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Arizona Diamondbacks an 11-5 defeat at Chase Field on August 22, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 59 percent chance of winning. Cincinnati built its advantage methodically, scoring in six of nine innings and finishing with 16 hits to Arizona's 10. The Reds scored twice in the third and three times in the fourth to establish the cushion that ultimately proved insurmountable, with Arizona never finding a consistent answer to Cincinnati's offensive production across the afternoon.

The game's most consequential swing came in the third inning when JJ Bleday laced a triple off Michael Soroka, a play the DiamondIQ model credited with a win-probability shift of plus 13.8 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Sal Stewart added to Arizona's woes in the fourth with a run-scoring single off Soroka worth plus 6.6 percent win probability, steadily eroding whatever hope the Diamondbacks' early home-field advantage represented. Arizona's best moments were largely negatives absorbed without payoff: Jose Fernandez grounded out in the second with a minus 6.5 percent win-probability impact, and Geraldo Perdomo's first-inning flyout off Rhett Lowder cost the home side minus 5.5 percent. Tim Tawa's sixth-inning home run off Lowder was worth plus 5.3 percent, providing a brief spark, but the deficit was already too deep to close.

Bleday led all players by WPA, finishing at plus 18.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.3, while Stewart contributed plus 10.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Rhett Lowder was the afternoon's most effective pitcher, posting a plus 14.2 percent WPA while the Reds' offense did the bulk of the damage against Soroka. The model's estimate reached zero percent by game's end, a clean summary of how thoroughly Cincinnati controlled the outcome once it established its early lead.