Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles walked off the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 in ten innings on August 22, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, completing a comeback that saw Baltimore erase a deficit and force extra innings before delivering the decisive blow. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Orioles a 43 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent at the final out.

The turning point of the game arrived in the eighth inning when Samuel Basallo connected on a home run off Kevin Kelly, a swing that shifted win probability by 35.3 percentage points and brought Baltimore level after the Rays had carried a lead into the late innings. The Orioles then survived the top of the tenth when Taylor Walls hit into a fielder's choice out off Rico Garcia, a play that cost Tampa Bay 23.5 percentage points of win probability, followed moments later by a Cedric Mullins groundout that added 16.4 percentage points back to Baltimore's ledger by stranding the threat. With the Orioles still alive in the bottom half, Dylan Beavers ended it with a walk-off double off Bryan Baker, a hit that carried a win-probability swing of 35.9 percentage points and sealed the victory.

Among the standout performers, Basallo finished with a WPA of plus-35.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Beavers posted a WPA of plus-35.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0. Mullins contributed a WPA of plus-19.2 percent across his plate appearances. On the pitching side, Shane McClanahan led all hurlers with a WPA of plus-22.8 percent, followed by Tyler Wells at plus-16.3 percent and Andrew Kittredge at plus-13.5 percent. Both clubs finished with eight hits and no errors, making the outcome hinge almost entirely on the high-leverage at-bats that the DiamondIQ model identified as the game's defining moments.