Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the visiting Washington Nationals 4-2 on August 22, 2026, at loanDepot park, with Miami's bullpen preserving a lead built in the game's early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring the Marlins at 58% and closed at 100% as Washington failed to threaten in the final five frames.

Miami established control quickly through the long ball. Heriberto Hernández delivered a home run off Jake Irvin in the bottom of the second, a swing that added 5.7% to Miami's win probability and contributed to a two-run inning that gave the Marlins an early cushion. Jakob Marsee extended that advantage with a home run of his own off Irvin in the bottom of the fourth, a blow that registered as the game's single biggest win-probability swing at plus 8.0%. Washington answered in the top half of the fourth, where José Tena singled off Eury Pérez in a sequence that added 7.6% to the Nationals' chances, and Dylan Crews doubled off Pérez in the fifth for another 9.6% swing, the two plays representing Washington's most meaningful threats. A Nasim Nuñez flyout in the second, costing the Nationals 5.0% in win probability at a pivotal juncture, illustrated how Washington repeatedly fell short when opportunities arose.

On the individual ledger, Marsee finished as Miami's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 11.6% with a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Hernández posted a RE24 of plus 1.1 alongside his plus 8.5% WPA. Tena led Washington's offensive performers at plus 7.2% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0. Miami's pitching staff carried the game home with Josh Ekness leading all pitchers at plus 11.4% WPA, supported by Michael Petersen at plus 6.4% and Calvin Faucher at plus 6.3%, as the Marlins held Washington to three hits and no runs after the fifth inning.