New York Mets at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Chicago White Sox a 10-5 defeat at Rate Field on August 22, 2026, pounding out 16 hits without committing an error while Chicago's pitching staff surrendered runs in five of nine innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Chicago holding a 60 percent home win probability, but that figure eroded steadily through the middle innings before settling at zero by the final out.

The turning points came in bunches in the third and fifth innings. Luis Robert Jr. delivered the most impactful swing of the game in the top of the third, connecting for a home run off Luis Castillo that shifted win probability 18.4 percent in New York's favor. Bo Bichette added to that damage in the same frame with a home run of his own off Castillo, worth another 10.7 percent swing. New York pushed three runs across that inning and never relinquished the lead. The Mets extended the margin in the fifth when Carson Benge launched a home run off Tyler Schweitzer for an 11.2 percent win-probability swing, part of a three-run frame that effectively put the game out of reach. Chicago's most significant opportunity to claw back came in the bottom of the sixth, where Andrew Benintendi's lineout off Austin Warren resulted in a 12.1 percent swing against the White Sox, extinguishing a potential rally.

Robert finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-24.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.1 across his two-homer effort. Miguel Vargas matched Robert's RE24 figure at plus-2.1 with a WPA of plus-16.9 percent, while Tristan Peters contributed plus-13.0 percent WPA and a plus-1.3 RE24. On the mound, Austin Warren was the standout, generating plus-23.0 percent WPA out of the bullpen, with Dedniel Núñez adding plus-5.2 percent. Kodai Senga posted a negligible minus-0.6 percent WPA. The model leans toward crediting New York's middle-inning power surge and Warren's relief work as the decisive factors in the outcome.