St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies routed the St. Louis Cardinals 12-3 at Citizens Bank Park on August 22, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring the Phillies at 59 percent and closed at 100 percent by game's end, a reflection of Philadelphia's sustained offensive output across multiple innings. The Phillies plated three runs in the first, four more in the third, and four again in the sixth, while the Cardinals managed just three runs on seven hits with no errors, finishing the night well short of making it a contest.

The biggest individual swing in win probability came from Nathan Church's groundout in the top of the second, which cost the Cardinals 6.1 percentage points at a moment when a rally might have complicated matters for Philadelphia. On the other side, Bryan De La Cruz was the model's most impactful offensive performer, generating a combined 9.9 percent in win probability added. His single off Quinn Mathews in the bottom of the first accounted for a 4.5 percent swing, and his single in the third added another 5.5 percent, pushing the game further out of St. Louis's reach. Iván Herrera's forceout in the top of the third, off Andrew Painter, surrendered another 4.4 percent for the Cardinals and effectively ended any hope of an early comeback.

Andrew Painter was the standout performer on the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing 12.7 percent in win probability added from the mound. Edmundo Sosa supported the Phillies offense with a double off Mathews in the first inning and finished with a WPA of plus 7.0 and an RE24 of plus 2.1, while J.T. Realmuto added 4.3 percent in win probability and a 1.8 RE24. Philadelphia's 15 hits against a Cardinals pitching staff that allowed runs in three separate innings told the broader story of a lopsided night in South Philadelphia.