San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | 5 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 at Progressive Field on August 20, 2026, completing a wire-to-wire win that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 61% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Cleveland struck first and decisively, plating three runs in the bottom of the first inning to establish immediate control, and the Guardians never relinquished the lead. San Francisco committed two errors on the night, finishing with five hits against a Cleveland pitching staff that was largely efficient, while the Guardians collected nine hits and played clean defense throughout.
The game's single most consequential offensive moment came in the top of the fourth, when Giants shortstop Willy Adames connected on a home run off Gavin Williams, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 15.2 percentage points and briefly gave San Francisco a foothold in the contest. However, Cleveland answered in the bottom of the sixth when Steven Kwan laced a single off Sam Hentges, a hit that added 11.1 percentage points to the Guardians' win probability and effectively quieted any Giants momentum. Brayan Rocchio contributed an additional cushion with a single in the eighth off JT Brubaker, pushing the probability needle another 5.7 points in Cleveland's favor. Adames, despite his home run, also struck out in the fifth for a minus 5.8 percentage point swing, underscoring the volatile nature of his individual impact on the game's probability profile.
Among position players, Kwan led all batters with a plus 15.2 WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24, while Patrick Bailey posted plus 9.1 WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24 in support. On the mound, Hunter Gaddis paced Cleveland's pitchers at plus 8.1 WPA, followed by Erik Sabrowski at plus 7.2 and Gavin Williams at plus 6.8 despite surrendering the Adames home run. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Cleveland's pitching depth as the defining factor in this outcome, with three relievers each contributing meaningfully to the Guardians' 5-2 final.