St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals rallied for six runs in the top of the ninth inning to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 10-9 at Great American Ball Park on August 20, 2026, completing a dramatic comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's win probability from a 51 percent pre-game edge for the home team all the way to zero. The Cardinals entered the final frame trailing and facing a Reds bullpen that appeared to have the game well in hand, but a chaotic ninth against Brock Burke unraveled Cincinnati's lead entirely.

The single most consequential moment of the game came when JJ Wetherholt reached on a field error in the top of the ninth, a play that shifted win probability by plus 64.3 percent in St. Louis's favor and stood as the largest swing of the entire contest. A hit by pitch to Bryan Torres earlier in the inning added another plus 15.2 percent for the Cardinals, while Everson Pereira's strikeout was the lone moment that pushed back against the surge, costing St. Louis 25.0 percent win probability. Cincinnati had appeared to seize control in the bottom of the sixth, when Matt McLain launched a home run off Ryne Stanek that represented a plus 47.9 percent swing and gave the Reds a commanding cushion. Jordan Walker had provided the Cardinals' offensive foundation with a third-inning home run off Brady Singer worth plus 24.0 percent win probability.

Among individual performers, McLain finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 56.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.8, but his effort ultimately went unrewarded in the final ledger. Wetherholt contributed plus 52.8 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, while Walker posted the highest RE24 among batters at plus 3.0 alongside his plus 20.4 percent WPA. On the mound, Michael McGreevy led Cardinals pitchers with plus 11.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Tejay Antone at plus 10.8 percent and Julian Garcia at plus 8.5 percent. Cincinnati's two errors proved costly in a game decided by a single run.