New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 3-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 18, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged as a 54 percent probability entering the game. The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the third inning when Trent Grisham connected for a home run off Shane Baz, a swing that added 10.9 percentage points of win probability. Baltimore answered immediately in the bottom half, as Coby Mayo launched a home run off Carlos Rodón to knot the game at one, a blow worth 11.2 percentage points of win probability that kept the Orioles competitive through the middle innings.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the seventh, where the Yankees effectively put the game away against reliever Josh Walker. Grisham delivered a run-scoring single that shifted win probability by 21.8 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night, and a Paul Goldschmidt walk further extended the threat by 11.5 percentage points. New York pushed across two runs in the frame to take a 3-1 lead, a margin they would not relinquish. Baltimore's most notable positive contribution from the pitching staff came after the outcome was largely settled, as Yohel Pozo grounded into an out in the ninth that registered a 14.4 percentage point gain for the Orioles — the second largest swing of the game — reflecting how thoroughly the DiamondIQ model had shifted against the home side by that point.
Grisham finished as the game's most impactful individual, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-27.0 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-1.7, spanning both his third-inning home run and his seventh-inning single. On the Baltimore side, Mayo's plus-15.0 percent WPA represented the brightest individual moment, though his efforts went unsupported in what was otherwise a quiet offensive evening. Shane Baz led Baltimore's pitchers in WPA at plus-17.3 percent, while Paul Blackburn and Yerry De los Santos each contributed plus-13.3 percent on the New York side, helping preserve the two-run advantage through the final innings.