San Diego Padres at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the New York Mets a 5-2 defeat at Citi Field on August 18, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving New York a 45 percent chance of winning at home and ending the night at zero. San Diego struck first in the top of the first, and the game's most consequential swing came in the fifth inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. drove a home run off Zac Thornton to push the Padres ahead, a play that shifted win probability by plus 16.6 percent in San Diego's favor. The Mets briefly responded in the bottom of the fifth when Luis Torrens connected on a solo home run off Robbie Ray, a plus 10.6 percent swing that kept New York within reach, but San Diego extended its lead with a Ty France single off Jefry Yan in the seventh, a play worth plus 8.4 percent in win probability, and added an insurance run in the ninth to close out the 5-2 final.

New York's most credible threat came in the bottom of the eighth against Adrian Morejon, when Luis Robert Jr. launched a home run to pull the Mets closer, a plus 12.0 percent swing, but a critical A.J. Ewing strikeout earlier in that same frame had already cost the home side 12.3 percent in win probability, blunting the inning's overall impact. Tatis Jr. finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus 12.6 percent WPA and a plus 2.0 RE24, while Manny Machado contributed plus 6.8 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24. On the pitching side, Robbie Ray led all pitchers with a plus 22.9 percent WPA despite surrendering the Torrens home run, and Adrian Morejon added plus 9.7 percent WPA out of the bullpen to help San Diego secure the road victory on 11 hits against six for the Mets.