Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Chicago White Sox 7-5 in ten innings at Wrigley Field on August 17, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically in its final frames after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win, which opened at 59 percent before first pitch, collapsed to near zero heading into the bottom of the ninth before rebounding to 100 percent by the game's end. The White Sox had taken a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning on a Randal Grichuk home run off Shota Imanaga that shifted win probability 26.3 points in Chicago's favor on the South Side, and they extended that advantage to 5-2 with an Andrew Benintendi two-run home run off Ryan Zeferjahn in the eighth, a swing worth 33.3 percentage points that briefly made the White Sox heavy favorites.

The Cubs' comeback hinged almost entirely on Nico Hoerner, whose single off Jordan Hicks in the bottom of the ninth produced the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus-50.8 percent, keeping Chicago's season alive and forcing extras. Hoerner had already contributed a key single off Luis Castillo in the fifth that added 21.6 points of win probability, and his night finished as the most impactful offensive performance by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, totaling plus-74.4 percent WPA and plus-2.9 RE24. Pete Crow-Armstrong then ended matters in the tenth with a walk-off home run off Hagen Smith, a blow worth 35.9 percentage points that completed the Cubs' comeback and gave Crow-Armstrong a final line of plus-45.2 percent WPA and plus-3.5 RE24, the highest run-environment impact of any player on the night. On the pitching side, Trevor Richards led Cubs relievers at plus-12.3 percent WPA, with David Peterson contributing plus-7.3 percent as the bullpen secured a win despite the White Sox holding a multi-run advantage as late as the eighth inning.