Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners held on to defeat the Houston Astros 3-2 at Daikin Park on August 16, 2026, completing the road victory despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Houston a 57% chance of winning at home. Seattle scratched across runs in the first, third, and sixth innings, while Houston answered with solo tallies in the fourth and sixth, setting up a tense finish that the Mariners ultimately controlled.

The two most consequential plays of the game came in the final frame. Andrés Muñoz retired Taylor Trammell on a strikeout to end the ninth, a sequence the DiamondIQ model registered as a 27.0% swing in win probability in Seattle's favor as the Mariners closed out the win. That out followed Muñoz also striking out Yainer Diaz for a 10.7% swing, effectively extinguishing Houston's last serious threat. The pivotal moment for the Astros had come an inning earlier, when Seranthony Domínguez struck out Daulton Varsho with a 25.8% negative swing for Seattle, keeping the Mariners from extending what had been a one-run lead. On the offensive side, Nick Allen's sixth-inning home run off Bryan Woo produced a 13.8% win-probability swing, while Jeremy Peña's fourth-inning blast off the same pitcher accounted for an 11.4% swing in Houston's favor.

Bryan Woo finished as the second-highest WPA pitcher for Seattle at plus-14.8%, while Seranthony Domínguez led all pitchers at plus-18.7% despite being credited from the Mariners' perspective in the final accounting. Eduard Bazardo contributed plus-9.7% WPA out of the bullpen. Among batters, Trammell led Seattle at plus-27.0% WPA, followed by Nick Allen at plus-8.0% with a positive 0.5 RE24, and LaMonte Wade Jr. at plus-6.7% WPA. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 57% Houston advantage before first pitch to a 0% probability by game's end, a complete reversal driven largely by Seattle's late-inning pitching.