MLB Recap · August 16, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

MIL6
Final
LAD2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL0100102026110
LAD000100001262

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 6-2 defeat at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on August 16, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 51 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Milwaukee scattered its offense across the middle and late innings, plating a run in the second, another in the fifth, two more in the seventh, and two final insurance runs in the ninth, while Los Angeles managed only single runs in the fourth and ninth against a Brewers pitching staff that held firm throughout. The Dodgers committed two errors against Milwaukee's zero, a factor that compounded Los Angeles's inability to sustain any offensive threat.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the seventh inning, when Jake Bauers delivered a double off Alex Vesia that shifted win probability by plus 15.9 percent in Milwaukee's favor, and Andrew Vaughn followed with a run-producing single off Vesia worth another plus 9.6 percent, effectively putting the game out of reach. Bauers had already been the game's central offensive figure, contributing a single in the fifth inning off Tarik Skubal that added plus 11.5 percent, giving him a cumulative WPA of plus 30.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.7 on the evening. The lone moment Los Angeles threatened to shift momentum came in the bottom of the fourth, when Max Muncy connected on a home run off Logan Henderson for plus 12.3 percent in win probability, but that spark produced no sustained rally.

On the mound, Logan Henderson was the story for Milwaukee, finishing with a plus 28.7 percent WPA, the best single-pitcher performance of the night. Aaron Ashby contributed plus 14.0 percent, highlighted by inducing Shohei Ohtani into a double play in the bottom of the eighth that erased minus 14.0 percent in Dodger win probability at a moment when Los Angeles needed baserunners most. Tarik Skubal added plus 5.6 percent in a losing effort for Los Angeles. Hunter Feduccia rounded out Milwaukee's offensive contributors with a plus 8.0 percent WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, as the Brewers finished with 11 hits against the Dodgers' six and recorded a clean defensive game to complete a commanding road victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalLAD win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jake Bauers — Double
Top 7th · off Alex Vesia
+15.9%
Shohei Ohtani — Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Aaron Ashby
-14.0%
Max Muncy — Home Run
Bot 4th · off Logan Henderson
+12.3%
Jake Bauers — Single
Top 5th · off Tarik Skubal
+11.5%
Andrew Vaughn — Single
Top 7th · off Alex Vesia
+9.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Jake Bauers+30.8%+2.7 RE24
Hunter Feduccia+8.0%+0.6 RE24
Max Muncy+6.2%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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