Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles edged the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 in ten innings at Tropicana Field on August 15, 2026, overcoming a DiamondIQ model pre-game home win probability of 66% in favor of Tampa Bay. The Orioles scratched across single runs in the second, fifth, and sixth innings before the Rays answered with runs of their own in the third and sixth, setting up a tense late-game sequence. The decisive moment of the regulation portion came in the bottom of the ninth, when Junior Caminero's single off Andrew Kittredge swung win probability by +44.4%, tying the game and forcing extras in the highest-leverage plate appearance of the night.
The extra inning resolved quickly and in Baltimore's favor. Tyler O'Neill delivered a go-ahead single off Bryan Baker in the top of the tenth that shifted win probability by +36.5%, giving the Orioles a lead they would not relinquish. Christian Encarnacion-Strand's strikeout against Baker added another +14.4% swing, while Dylan Beavers' strikeout in the same frame worked against Baltimore at -13.0%. Cam Sanders then closed out the bottom of the tenth, with Richie Palacios' strikeout providing the final meaningful probability shift of the game at +27.0% from Baltimore's vantage point.
Among individual performers, Caminero led all batters by cumulative WPA at +34.1%, with O'Neill close behind at +30.2% and Palacios contributing +23.4% despite his bat going quiet. On the pitching side, Rico Garcia paced Baltimore's staff with a +23.3% WPA mark, followed by Kyle Bradish at +16.2% and Casey Legumina at +14.0%. The Orioles finished with nine hits against eleven for the Rays, but it was Baltimore's ability to convert in the extra frame that proved the difference, ultimately driving Tampa Bay's win probability from 66% to zero.