Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners handed the Houston Astros a 10-5 defeat at Daikin Park on August 15, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had projected as a 58 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and reducing it to zero by the final out. Seattle built its advantage early and never relinquished it, finishing with 15 hits against no errors while Houston committed two errors of its own in an eight-error differential that compounded the damage.

The game's decisive stretch came in the second inning, where Seattle did the bulk of its work against Hayden Wesneski. Victor Robles delivered the swing of the game, a triple that shifted win probability by plus 10.7 percent in Seattle's favor, and a Randy Arozarena strikeout outcome later in the frame added another plus 7.3 percent as Houston's relief options failed to stem the bleeding. Houston briefly answered in the bottom half when Christian Vázquez connected for a home run off Emerson Hancock, a plus 6.6 percent swing for the Astros, but Yordan Alvarez's flyout in that same inning cost Houston minus 7.8 percent on the probability dial, extinguishing the rally before it could gain traction. Brendan Donovan's single off Wesneski in the fourth inning, worth plus 6.9 percent, helped Seattle push the margin further.

Emerson Hancock was the story on the pitching side, accumulating plus 30.8 percent in win probability added despite surrendering the Vázquez home run, a number that underscores how effectively he limited damage across his outing. Robles led all position players with plus 12.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.4, while Donovan followed at plus 9.7 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. Arozarena contributed plus 5.8 percent in WPA, though his RE24 of minus 0.6 reflected a mixed run-environment impact. Seattle closed with three runs in the ninth and two in the eighth to complete the margin, making the final score as emphatic as the DiamondIQ model's closing probability suggested.