St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals erased a 62% DiamondIQ model pre-game home win probability for the Chicago Cubs and pulled away for an 8-4 victory at Wrigley Field on August 15, 2026, scoring in four separate innings while holding the Cubs to a single run over the final eight frames. St. Louis struck first with a three-run opening inning against Matthew Boyd, and though Chicago answered with three runs of its own in the bottom of the second, the Cardinals never surrendered the lead for good after reclaiming it with Joshua Báez's fourth-inning home run.
Báez was the decisive force in this game, accounting for a combined +29.1% in win probability added — the highest single-player contribution on either side. His two-run home run off Boyd in the fourth inning shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by +11.3%, and his second home run, again off Boyd, in the sixth inning delivered a +17.7% swing that effectively broke the game open. Michael Conforto provided the Cubs' lone moment of genuine model-swinging impact, connecting for a home run off Michael McGreevy in the bottom of the second that registered +18.1% in win probability added and temporarily kept Chicago competitive. McGreevy, however, recovered to finish as the top-performing pitcher by WPA at +17.7%, limiting the damage after Conforto's blast.
Pedro Pagés contributed a +9.4% WPA for St. Louis, and the Cardinals bullpen arms Justin Bruihl and Trent Thornton each added positive WPA contributions in the late innings to close things out. Michael Busch's strikeout to end the first inning represented the Cubs' single costliest moment at the plate, a -9.9% swing that snuffed out what had briefly looked like a promising threat against McGreevy. Chicago finished with more hits than St. Louis, eight to seven, but were unable to string them together after the second inning as the Cardinals coasted to the road win.