St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 at Wrigley Field on August 14, 2026, a game defined almost entirely by a single decisive inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the day with a 62 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily to a certainty as Chicago manufactured all of its offense in one concentrated burst in the bottom of the sixth.

The decisive swing of the game came from Seiya Suzuki, whose home run off George Soriano shifted win probability by 23.7 percent in Chicago's favor, immediately rupturing what had been a scoreless pitcher's duel through five innings. The Cubs continued pressing in that same frame, with Dansby Swanson following with a single off Matthew Liberatore that added another 10.7 percent to Chicago's win probability. Pete Crow-Armstrong's pop out off Liberatore briefly tempered the rally at minus 6.8 percent, but the damage was already done. St. Louis mounted its most credible threat in the top of the eighth, when José Fermín drew a walk off Ryan Zeferjahn to produce a positive 5.4 percent swing, though César Prieto's flyout in the same inning erased much of that momentum at minus 6.4 percent.

By individual contribution, Suzuki led all batters at plus 21.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of 2.2, cementing him as the game's central figure. Swanson finished at plus 8.6 percent WPA with a RE24 of 0.5, while Fermín accounted for plus 7.4 percent WPA despite playing for the losing side. On the mound, Clay Holmes was the standout performer at plus 26.0 percent WPA, with Matthew Liberatore contributing plus 19.5 percent WPA for Chicago as St. Louis managed just three hits across nine scoreless innings against the Cubs pitching staff.