Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-5 at Target Field on August 12, 2026, in a game that turned decisively in the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 55 percent home win probability for Minnesota, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Twins controlled the game's critical stretch.

The third inning was the pivot point in both directions. Dylan Beavers gave Baltimore a temporary jolt with a home run off Zebby Matthews that shifted win probability 25.5 percent in the Orioles' favor, representing the single largest swing of the night. Minnesota answered emphatically in the bottom half against Shane Baz, stringing together a sequence that flipped the game's complexion entirely. Alan Roden delivered a double worth 13.3 percent in win probability, followed by a Victor Caratini single at plus 10.9 percent and a Brooks Lee single at plus 9.1 percent, collectively producing a four-run inning that put the Twins ahead for good. Minnesota added two more runs in the fifth to extend the lead to 7-4, and Baltimore's final threat was extinguished in the ninth when Colton Cowser hit into a double play off Yoendrys Gómez, a minus 12.4 percent swing that closed the door on any rally.

By cumulative WPA, Alan Roden was Minnesota's most impactful offensive contributor at plus 24.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Beavers led Baltimore at plus 25.5 percent despite ending up on the losing side. Out of the bullpen, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Morris each contributed plus 5.0 percent in win probability for the Twins, with A.J. Minter adding plus 4.5 percent as Minnesota's relief corps protected the margin across the final innings. The Twins out-hit Baltimore 14 to 7, committing no errors alongside the Orioles in an otherwise clean defensive contest.