Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-3 at Oracle Park on August 10, 2026, with the game's outcome ultimately decided in extra innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Giants a 44 percent home win probability, but a three-run Astros tenth inning erased that edge entirely, dropping San Francisco's chances to zero. Houston finished with eight hits and no errors, while the Giants managed six hits and were equally clean in the field before the late-game collapse.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the tenth when LaMonte Wade Jr. drew a walk off Jason Foley that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game, shifting the model's estimate by 32.0 percent in Houston's favor. Isaac Paredes followed with a double off Foley that added another 24.8 percent to Houston's win probability, and the Astros ultimately plated three runs in the frame to put the game away. The groundwork for that rally had been laid an inning earlier, when Cam Smith singled off Dylan Smith in the ninth for a 29.1 percent swing, the second-largest play of the contest. Smith had already made his presence felt in the seventh, connecting on a home run off JT Brubaker for a 15.8 percent positive swing, a blow that Drew Gilbert answered with an equal 15.8 percent swing the opposite direction when he homered off Hayden Wesneski in the bottom half of the same frame.

Cam Smith finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a combined WPA of plus-45.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.8 across his contributions. Wade added plus-32.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Paredes led all players in run-expectancy impact at plus-2.1 RE24 alongside his plus-24.7 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Blade Tidwell was the most valuable arm on the evening at plus-19.6 percent WPA, with Sam Hentges contributing plus-9.7 percent and Keaton Winn adding plus-5.6 percent as Houston's bullpen preserved the victory.