Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves edged the New York Yankees 2-1 in ten innings at Yankee Stadium on August 9, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at an even 50 percent home win probability and closing at zero as Atlanta secured the road victory. The game was a tightly contested pitchers' duel through the first six innings, with neither team scratching across a run before Matt Olson broke the deadlock in the seventh with a home run off Cam Schlittler, a swing that shifted win probability 16.5 percent in Atlanta's favor. The Yankees answered in the bottom of the eighth when Trent Grisham connected off Didier Fuentes for a solo home run, a blow worth a 24.5 percent swing that leveled the score at one and set the stage for extra innings.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where Michael Harris II delivered the go-ahead single off Paul Blackburn, the most impactful play of the game at plus 36.5 percent win probability added. A Dominic Smith strikeout double play in the same half-inning added another 16.6 percent to Atlanta's side of the ledger by limiting further damage and preserving the one-run margin. When Tyler Kinley induced a Ryan McMahon strikeout in the bottom of the tenth, the Yankees' last realistic path to a win closed out with a 31.6 percent probability swing in the Braves' favor, completing the 2-1 final.

Among the game's standout performers, Grisham finished as the Yankees' most impactful bat by WPA at plus 33.3 percent, though his effort ultimately came in a losing effort. Harris II led the Braves offensively at plus 32.0 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24, while McMahon's groundout-sealing contribution registered at plus 26.0 percent WPA on the pitching side of the ledger. Grant Holmes was the top-performing pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's measure at plus 28.8 percent WPA, followed by Schlittler at plus 20.5 percent despite surrendering the Olson home run.