San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a decisive 9-4 defeat at Chase Field on August 4, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability dropping from 55% before first pitch to 0% by game's end. San Diego wasted no time asserting control, scoring three runs in each of the first two innings to build an insurmountable early cushion. The final line told the story of a thorough effort, with the Padres collecting 16 hits against zero errors while Arizona managed just six hits and committed one error of their own.

The pivotal moments of the game came in those critical early frames, where win-probability swings established the tone. Xander Bogaerts' groundout in the top of the second inning against Eduardo Rodriguez generated the single largest positive swing for San Diego, adding 11.3% to their win probability in a situation where the Padres were pressing their advantage. In contrast, Arizona's missed opportunities were equally decisive in the opposite direction, as Tim Tawa's pop out off Randy Vasquez in the bottom of the second represented a 12.6% swing against the Diamondbacks, while Ketel Marte's flyout to lead off the bottom of the first cost Arizona 8.5% in win probability. Freddy Fermin's flyout in the first and Manny Machado's single in the second each contributed meaningful positive swings for the Padres as well.

Randy Vasquez was the standout performer of the night by a significant margin, accumulating a staggering plus-29.0% in WPA to lead all pitchers. His ability to strand Arizona hitters in high-leverage situations proved to be the backbone of the Padres' victory. Among San Diego's batters, Bogaerts led with plus-11.7% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, while Machado delivered the most run-creation value at plus-2.3 RE24 alongside his plus-4.7% WPA contribution. Fermin added plus-6.4% WPA of his own, rounding out a balanced offensive effort that overwhelmed the Diamondbacks from the opening inning.