Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 5-0 on August 4, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 60 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Philadelphia collected 11 hits to Washington's 5, and neither team committed an error in a clean but thoroughly one-sided contest. The Phillies scored all the runs they would need in the third inning, adding a solo run in the seventh to close out the scoring.

The third inning was the decisive frame, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability swings tell the story precisely. With Zack Littell on the mound for Washington, Luis Arraez delivered a double that shifted win probability 8.6 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor, the single biggest play of the game. Brandon Marsh followed with another double off Littell, adding 7.6 percentage points, and a Bryce Harper walk contributed an additional 4.4 points as the Phillies piled on in that half-inning. On the other side, Dylan Crews grounded out against Jesús Luzardo in the top of the third, a moment that swung win probability 7.2 points toward Philadelphia and extinguished any Washington threat before it could develop. Nasim Nuñez had drawn a walk off Luzardo for a 4.1-point swing, but the Nationals were unable to convert.

Luzardo was the standout performer of the night by a significant margin, finishing with a WPA of plus-21.4 percent, the dominant force behind Philadelphia's probability climb. Among batters, Arraez led the way at plus-10.1 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, followed by Marsh at plus-6.4 WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 and Harper at plus-4.9 WPA and plus-0.4 RE24. Caleb Kilian and Trevor Williams each finished at plus-0.0 WPA in relief, preserving what Luzardo had built without incident.