MLB Recap · August 4, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

LAD1
Final
CHC5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD010000000140
CHC00100121-590

The Story

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 at Wrigley Field on August 4, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win from an even 50 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Chicago scored in five separate innings, building their advantage methodically while holding Los Angeles to a single run on four hits. Javier Assad led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-17.6 percent, anchoring a Cubs pitching effort that kept the Dodgers largely at bay throughout.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third when Dansby Swanson connected on a home run off Tarik Skubal, a swing worth plus-11.0 percent in win probability and the first of several blows that steadily pushed the game out of Los Angeles's reach. Swanson finished as the game's top offensive performer, posting a WPA of plus-14.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5. Nico Hoerner extended the Cubs lead with a single off Skubal in the sixth inning worth plus-12.4 percent in win probability, matching Swanson's RE24 mark of plus-1.5. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a single off Alex Vesia in the seventh, contributing plus-11.7 percent to Chicago's win probability. Andy Pages grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth, costing the Dodgers minus-10.6 percent in win probability and effectively ending any realistic Los Angeles threat. Seiya Suzuki also made a significant contribution, finishing second among Cubs batters with a WPA of plus-13.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalCHC win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 50.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nico Hoerner Single
Bot 6th · off Tarik Skubal
+12.4%
Bot 7th · off Alex Vesia
+11.7%
Dansby Swanson Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Tarik Skubal
+11.0%
Michael Busch Fielders Choice Out
Bot 6th · off Tarik Skubal
-10.9%
Andy Pages Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Javier Assad
-10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Dansby Swanson+14.8%+1.5 RE24
Seiya Suzuki+13.8%+1.3 RE24
Nico Hoerner+11.1%+1.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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