Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-2 at Daikin Park on August 4, 2026, completing a game that began with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing the Astros at a 59 percent pre-game win probability and ended with that figure reaching 100 percent. Houston's offense was quiet through the first three innings before breaking through in the fourth against Toronto starter Chad Dallas, when a Yainer Diaz single worth plus-10.6 percent win probability and a Cam Smith single worth plus-8.6 percent helped the Astros build an early two-run cushion. The fifth inning proved decisive, as Toronto briefly threatened with a Myles Straw triple off Hayden Wesneski that swung win probability by plus-16.3 percent in the Blue Jays' favor, but Houston answered emphatically in the bottom half, plating four runs against Dallas to effectively end the contest.

The single most consequential swing of the game came in the bottom of the fifth, when Taylor Trammell connected on a home run off Dallas that shifted win probability by plus-24.7 percent, the largest single-play impact of the night. Jose Altuve followed with a single worth plus-11.0 percent, compounding the damage. Trammell finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-24.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Myles Straw led all Blue Jays contributors at plus-20.6 percent WPA despite Toronto's offensive effort amounting to just five hits and two runs. Altuve added plus-12.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1 to round out Houston's most impactful bats.

On the mound, Trey Yesavage was the Astros' top pitching contributor by WPA at plus-9.1 percent, with Bennett Sousa adding plus-2.9 percent and Braydon Fisher contributing plus-0.7 percent. Toronto's single error and inability to sustain scoring pressure beyond Straw's fifth-inning triple allowed Houston to coast through the final four innings without further threat, closing out a convincing home victory.