Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates held off the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at American Family Field on August 3, 2026, completing a comeback from a pregame deficit that the DiamondIQ model had set at 65 percent in favor of the home side. Pittsburgh struck decisively in the third inning, where Spencer Horwitz delivered a double off Brandon Sproat that shifted win probability 23.7 percent in the Pirates' favor, part of a three-run frame that gave Pittsburgh a lead it would not relinquish. The Pirates added another run in the fourth, and though Milwaukee chipped away with single tallies in the fifth and sixth — the latter including an Andrew Vaughn single off Bubba Chandler that swung win probability 20.7 percent toward the Brewers — Pittsburgh's bullpen steadied the game in the late innings.
The final margin came down to a tense ninth, where Mason Montgomery closed the door for Pittsburgh. Jackson Chourio's strikeout to end the game was the single most consequential play of the night, shifting win probability 27.0 percent in Pittsburgh's favor and extinguishing Milwaukee's last realistic chance at a comeback. Brice Turang's strikeout earlier in that same inning had also drained 10.7 percent from the Brewers' prospects. By WPA, Chourio finished as the top overall performer at plus-33.6 percent despite a RE24 of minus-0.2, while Horwitz contributed a plus-22.5 percent WPA alongside a plus-1.6 RE24 for a more complete offensive impact. Joey Ortiz rounded out the Pirates' top contributors at plus-19.5 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24.
On the mound, Camilo Doval was Pittsburgh's most valuable reliever by WPA at plus-23.3 percent, a figure anchored by Garrett Mitchell's groundout in the eighth that erased 12.9 percent from Milwaukee's win probability. Aaron Ashby and Gregory Soto also contributed positively at plus-14.0 and plus-11.3 percent respectively, helping Pittsburgh strand Milwaukee's threats across the final four innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Milwaukee's win probability fell from 65 percent before the first pitch to zero at the final out.