San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the San Diego Padres 5-1 at Chase Field on August 3, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 56 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Tim Tawa launched a home run off Michael King that added 26.1 percent to Arizona's win probability in a single swing. That blow was the engine of a three-run fourth that effectively broke the game open, and Tawa finished the night as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a WPA of plus-32.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.5. Geraldo Perdomo contributed a modest but meaningful plus-4.3 percent WPA of his own, while Luis Campusano provided San Diego's most consequential offensive moment, a seventh-inning single off Brandon Pfaadt that added 9.6 percent to the Padres' win probability and briefly kept the Arizona lead from feeling entirely insurmountable.

Arizona's pitching staff was equally central to the outcome. Brandon Pfaadt posted a WPA of plus-15.4 percent, benefiting in part from a double-play grounder by Sung-Mun Song in the third inning that cost the Padres 8.0 percent in win probability. Juan Morillo added plus-13.0 percent out of the bullpen, most critically when Fernando Tatis Jr. struck out in the eighth inning, a moment that swung 6.3 percent back toward Arizona after Song's single in the same frame had given the Padres a flicker of life. The Padres finished with six hits and one error against nine hits and one error for Arizona, and the model leans toward the Diamondbacks having controlled this game from the fourth inning forward, with Tawa's home run serving as the decisive inflection point.