St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-1 at Rogers Centre on August 2, 2026, a game that remained tightly contested into the late innings before St. Louis pulled away with a four-run ninth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Toronto holding a 51% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, reflecting how completely the Cardinals seized control over the final two frames.
The game's turning point arrived in the bottom of the eighth, when Luis Urías delivered a double off George Soriano that swung win probability 20.8 points in Toronto's favor, briefly threatening to shift the momentum toward the Blue Jays. George Springer had also kept Toronto's hopes alive earlier, lining a triple off Ryne Stanek in the bottom of the seventh for a 12.7-point swing. But the Cardinals answered emphatically in the top of the ninth against Louis Varland, with Bryan Torres's single generating a 20.0-point swing and José Fermín following with a single worth another 10.9 points as St. Louis pushed across four runs to effectively close the door. Lars Nootbaar had set an early tone with a double off Max Scherzer in the third inning, accounting for an 11.8-point swing that gave the Cardinals their initial lead.
Among individual performers, Matthew Liberatore led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 31.8%, anchoring the Cardinals' effort on the mound across a largely quiet middle sequence. Max Scherzer posted a plus 15.2% WPA despite surrendering the Nootbaar double, and Spencer Miles contributed plus 14.0% as the bullpen held Toronto to a single run through eight innings. Offensively, Urías finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 21.2% with a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Nootbaar's plus 16.4% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 made him the most impactful run-producer on the night. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Cardinals' pitching depth as the structural advantage that kept Toronto's late threat from amounting to anything beyond a single run.